Henry Wan, Ph.D.

Core Principle

Don’t guess blindly. Whenever possible, eliminate at least two answer choices before guessing.

If you cannot eliminate at least two choices, leave the question blank.

If you decide to guess, prioritize D, then C, based on the historical answer-frequency data analyzed in this guide. Avoid choosing A or E solely because you have no other preference.

1. Scoring Rules

Key point: A blank answer earns 1.5 points, while a wrong answer earns 0.

Therefore, guessing has an opportunity cost: if your guess is wrong, you forgo the 1.5 points you would have earned by leaving the question blank.

2. Why You Shouldn’t Guess Randomly

If you have no idea how to solve a question, leaving it blank (1.5 points) is usually better than guessing randomly.

3. Three-Step Decision Process

Step 1: How many options can you eliminate?

Step 2: Which remaining option should you pick?

Important: These preferences are based on historical answer frequencies, not a guarantee that any particular choice is correct.

Step 3: After Guessing

Use the time you save to check the questions you know how to solve. Securing points on questions you understand is generally more valuable than spending too much time on uncertain guesses.

4. Option Frequencies (Whole Contest)

Pattern: D appears most frequently in both contests. B and C are also common, while A and E appear less frequently.

These figures describe the historical contests analyzed; they do not guarantee the answer to any individual question.

5. Special Section: The Last 10 Questions (16–25)

The last 10 questions can be particularly challenging when time is running short. The following data cover Questions 16–25 only.

Option Frequencies (Questions 16–25)

Pattern: The last 10 questions show a pattern similar to that of the whole contest. D is the most frequent answer, while A and E are the least frequent.

Expected Score on the Last 10 Questions

Key findings:

• On the last 10 AMC 12 questions, picking D has an expected value of 1.508, slightly above the blank score of 1.5.

• On the last 10 AMC 10 questions, picking D (1.472) has an expected value slightly below the blank score (1.5).

Strategy for the Last 10 Questions

Avoid choosing A or E solely on the basis of historical frequency when guessing blindly on the last 10 questions. Whenever possible, use mathematical reasoning to eliminate choices first.

6. Exam Mantra

AMC 10/12: Don’t guess blindly.

Only guess after eliminating two.

Pick D first, then C.

A and E are generally less favorable choices when guessing blindly.

Last 10 questions: D may be your best friend, but elimination is still the best strategy.

7. Reminders

1. Mark questions you have no idea how to solve and return to them at the end.

2. If you can eliminate two options, guess — don’t hesitate.

3. Spend at most 15 seconds per guess.

4. Leaving a question blank is also a strategy — it is not giving up.

5. Before submitting, recheck the questions you know how to solve. Securing those points is more valuable than spending extra time on uncertain guesses.

Appendix: Statistical Tables

Table 1. AMC 10 Answer Frequency (53 contests, 1,325 questions)

Ranking: D > B > C > A > E

Table 2. AMC 12 Answer Frequency (53 contests, 1,324 questions)

Ranking: D > C > B > E > A

Note: The AMC 12 total is 1,324 (not 1,325) because the 2025 AMC 12A Problem 25 was officially removed from scoring by the MAA due to a flaw in the question. All contestants received full credit, and no official A–E answer exists for that problem.

Table 3. AMC 10 Last 10 Questions (Q16–25, 530 answers)

Ranking: D > B > C > A > E

Table 4. AMC 12 Last 10 Questions (Q16–25, 529 answers)

Ranking: D > C > B > E > A

Note: AMC 12 Q16–25 has 529 answers instead of 530 because the 2025 AMC 12A Problem 25 was removed from scoring.

Key Takeaways

Conclusion:

In the historical data analyzed, both AMC 10 and AMC 12 show a preference for middle answer choices, both across the whole contest and in the last 10 questions.

B, C, and D together account for about 70% of the recorded answers.

A and E together account for about 30% of the recorded answers, both across the whole contest and in the last 10 questions.

On the last 10 AMC 12 questions, picking D has an expected value of approximately 1.51, slightly above the blank score of 1.5.

Print suggestion: One A4 page (double-sided if needed), hand out before the exam.

Good luck on your AMC 10 / AMC 12!

Further Reading

The strategic framework presented in this card builds on the expected-value approach discussed in:

Henry Wan. (2026). When Should You Guess on the AMC 10/12? A Mathematical Guide to Scoring Strategy.

Important distinction: Historical answer frequencies describe past contests; they do not guarantee the distribution of answers on future exams. Students should use mathematical reasoning and systematic elimination as their primary guessing strategies.